In this paper we consider a class of conditionally Gaussian state space models and discuss how they can provide a flexible and fairly simple tool for modelling financial time series, even in presence of different components in the series, or of stochastic volatility. Estimation can be computed...

Using two data series, namely GDP and the index of industrial production, we study the relationship between output variability and the growth rate of output. Ng-Perron unit root test shows that the growth rate of GDP is non-stationary but the growth rate of industrial output is stationary. Thus,...

We examine and evaluate the concept of risk for the financial market of telecommunications in Europe using the Value-at-Risk (VaR) method. In particular, we compare the estimates of risk between stock market indices and stock prices of telecommunications institutions in Europe. The estimates of...

The Pareto-Normal-Pareto (PNP) distribution assumes that, for log returns of financial series, the innovations are normally distributed between two threshold values with Pareto tails below and above the respective thresholds. These threshold values can be estimated by maximum likelihood...

Financial returns exhibit common behavior described at best by factor models, but also fat tails, which may be captured by α-stable distributions. This paper concentrates on estimating factor models with multivariate α-stable distributed and independent factors and idiosyncratic noises under...

In this paper, the focus is on sequential analysis of financial time series. Mean and variance of time series are simultaneously monitored. Initially, conventional control charts, well-known tools of statistical process control, are combined with the previously introduced characteristic...

Crude Oil is a commodity with huge strategic importance to all countries in the world. But in the recent years, the oil market as well as all commodities market has crossed an intense period of changes due to a volatile international economic context. After a decade of rapid economic growth...

Performance measurement of investment managers is a topic of interest to practitioners and academics alike. The traditional performance evaluation literature has attempted to distinguish stock-picking ability (selectivity) from the ability to predict overall market returns (market-timing)....

The European economy was hit by a confidence shock in 2009 when the Greek government of Papandreou discovered the true amount of public deficit. The subsequent loss of trust in European fiscal governance reduced financial markets' willingness to lend to indebted governments. The European Union...

Background: In light of the latest global financial crisis and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis, accurate measuring of market losses has become a very current issue. One of the most popular risk measures is Value-at-Risk (VaR). Objectives: Our paper has two main purposes. The first is to test...