A small open economy model emphasizing the endogenous interestrate arbitrage was employed to examine whether arbitrage activities would dampen or augment exchange rate volatility against random disturbances. Based on numerical simulation, increased risk aversion of arbitragers was observed to...

Many studies have pointed out that the underlying relations and functions for the monetary model (e.g. the PPP relation, the money demand function, monetary policy rule, etc.) have undergone parameter instabilities and that the relation between exchange rates and macro fundamentals are unstable...

During the 2007-2009 financial crisis the foreign exchange market was characterized by large volatility and wide currency swings. In this paper we evaluate whether during the period of the Great Recession there has been a structural break in the relationship between fundamentals and exchange...

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

This paper constructs an RMB/USD exchange rate index and a basket currency exchange rate index. The correlation maximization of the RMB/USD and the basket currency index may determine the weight and quantity of the basket currency. The currency basket indicates that the weight of the USD is...

This paper investigates the extent of concordance in financial crises by both asset market and country in six Asian countries over the period 1970-2002. To that purpose we adapt a concordance index to deal with the typically low incidence of financial crises in both bivariate and multivariate...

This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 9 OECD countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2009:Q1 at short and long horizons. In contrast with previous work, which reports...

Even though the forward-spot relationship in currency markets is very important for policy makers and for corporate and investment managers, it remains a theoretical and empirical puzzle. In theory the forward rate should be an unbiased forecast of the future spot rate, but this hypothesis has...

Since the mid-1970's, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) of forward and spot exchange rates has been intensively studied and tested with inconclusive and contradictory results. On the basis of the hypothesis, this paper provides variable mean response (VMR) random coefficients models to...