We develop a model that can explain the evolution of trend inflation in the United States in the three decades before the Great Recession as a function of the reduction in uncertainty about the monetary policy maker's behaviour. The model features ambiguity-averse agents and ambiguity regarding...

This paper proposes a method for detecting the sources of misspecification in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on testing, in a data-rich environment, the exogeneity of the variables of the DSGE with respect to some auxiliary variables. Finding evidence of...

This paper shows how and when it is possible to obtain a mapping from a quarterly dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to a monthly specification that maintains the same economic restrictions and has real coefficients. We use this technique to derive the monthly counterpart of the...

We estimate a Bayesian VAR analogue to the Bank of England's DSGE model (COMPASS) and assess their relative performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time between 2000 and 2012. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure...

Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...