We define the nagging predictor, which, instead of using bootstrapping to produce a series of i.i.d. predictors, exploits the randomness of neural network calibrations to provide a more stable and accurate predictor than is available from a single neural network run. Convergence results for the...

The literature on capital allocation is biased towards an asset modeling framework rather than an actuarial framework. The asset modeling framework leads to the proliferation of inappropriate assumptions about the effect of insurance line of business growth on aggregate loss distributions. This...