Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Dialogue with Ray DALIO—Development and Cooperation in the New World Order -- Chapter 3. Outlook on the World Economy, Finance and Global Order -- Chapter 4. China Economy and Policy Outlook -- Chapter 5. Innovation, Finance, and Tech Competition --...

While it is tempting to think of Free Trade Areas (FTAs) as liberalizing, they need not be. One reason for this is a relatively less studied feature of FTAs, namely Rules of Origin (ROOs) which determine when products are eligible for preferential treatment. We develop a model to study the...

Demographic differences, like young and elderly, and healthy and disabled, are summarized as consumers' heterogeneity in expenditure shares, and introduced into an otherwise standard HO model, together with income distribution in this paper. We prove that free trade may hurt consumers who spend...

This paper aims to provide a theory of current account adjustment that generalizes the textbook version of the intertemporal approach to current account and places domestic labor market institutions at the center stage. In general, in response to a shock, an economy adjusts through a combination...

This paper proposes a simple model to study the relationship between domestic institutions - financial system, corporate governance, and property rights protection - and patterns of international capital flows. It studies conditions under which financial globalization can be a substitute for...

This paper develops a theory of international trade in which financial development and factor endowments jointly determine comparative advantage. We apply the financial contract model of Holmstrom and Tirole (1998) to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model in which firms' dependence on...

In a situation where tariff reforms are being negotiated between two parties aims to raise its exports and the other aims to raise its welfare, tariff cuts must be in the interest" of at least one party. It is possible for the interests of the two sides to conflict. Conflict is certain" if the...

In contrast to existing work which takes an ex-ante approach and looks for policy prescriptions which yield welfare improvements, we take an ex-post approach. We ask whether there are indicators which show whether welfare has risen or not in the wake of a reform. That is, we look for evidence of...