We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of six competing models at horizons of up to three quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup. All the models use information in monthly indicators released ahead of quarterly GDP. We estimate two models – averaged vector autoregressions...

This paper analyses empirically the link between central bank financial strength and inflation. The issue has become very topical in recent years as many central banks have accumulated large financial exposures and the risk of losses has risen. We conclude that even though some estimates show a...

This article discusses the experience of countries hit by debt crises as well as the channels of contagion of sovereign default risk to the financial system. It focuses primarily on identifying channels of contagion that might represent a relevant threat to the Czech economy and discusses their...

This paper uses information from a rich firm-level survey on wage and price-setting procedures, in around 15,000 firms in 15 European Union countries, to investigate the relative importance of internal versus external factors in the setting of wages of newly hired workers. The evidence suggests...

It has been well established that the wages of individual workers react little, especially downwards, to shocks that hit their employer. This paper presents new evidence from a unique survey of firms across Europe on the prevalence of downward wage rigidity in both real and nominal terms. We...

What do we know about the effects of structural reforms? One main reason the answer may be “little†is inadequate measurement. In this paper we put forward improved measures of economic liberalization across countries over time. We show that structural reforms, carefully measured,...

In this paper we analyze the favorableness and extent of the media coverage of the CNB’s monetary policy decisions in the period of 2002–-2007. We identify the factors explaining the variance in these two dimensions using an extensive set of articles published in the four most...

Estimated Taylor rules have become popular as a description of monetary policy conduct. There are numerous reasons why real monetary policy can be asymmetric and estimated Taylor rules nonlinear. This paper tests whether monetary policy can be described as asymmetric in three new European Union...

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample of new EU member countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have a profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates....