The purpose of this paper is twofold: firstly, to identify and quantify the potential costs to the Czech economy should fulfilment of the Maastricht inflation criterion (MIC) require disinflation; and secondly, to discuss and suggest policies geared towards minimising the costs related to...

This paper is aimed at developing short-term forecasting methods based on the LEI (leading economic indicators) approach. We use a set of econometric models (PCA, SURE) that provide estimates of GDP growth for the Czech economy for a co-incident quarter and a few quarters ahead. These models...

This paper analyses the European budget and the net position of the ten new member states. We argue that the EU budget should be reconsidered, as the Union has expanded to 25 member states and has become more heterogeneous. We demonstrate how the ten new members fared with respect to the...

This paper analyses the performance of the inflation forecast-based (IFB) monetary policy rules in the quarterly projection model of the Czech National Bank. The paper begins by reviewing the model and its parametrization, including the variance-covariance matrix of disturbances employed in...

In this paper we study the endogenous response of unequally developed regions to a drop in investment and trade costs in a general equilibrium model. The response is characterized by a rise in foreign direct investment in the underdeveloped region and increased consumption in the developed one,...

This paper aims at estimating the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for the Czech Republic. The existing empirical literature does not come to a consensus about the degree of pass-through to Czech inflation. Since there is no unique approach regarding how to measure ERPT, we use various...

In this paper we analyze the effects of changing market structure on price dynamics of final goods in the emerging Czech retail market. We estimate the extent of upstream and downstream market power and find that changing market structure was responsible for an average yearly decrease in the...

This note summarizes the various outputs from the CNB research project Stress Testing for Banking Supervision. Previous research notes in this project presented the key stress testing concepts and discussed the design of stress tests in general terms. Since then, the project has generated...

The note discusses key issues involved in designing a suitable set of stress tests for the Czech banking system. The aim of the note is to propose stress tests that could be used by the Czech National Bank on a regular basis to assess the soundness of domestic banks, both for purposes of...