Showing 131 - 140 of 126,768
This study provides estimates of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty for the Greek economy and considers … their time-varying impact on the corresponding macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth and inflation. The authors find that …, in both cases, the degree of uncertainty varies over time. Its impact on the underlying variables also fluctuates and is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077830
effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be statistically insignificant until mid …-to-late 1990s and negative thereafter. Our findings suggest that uncertainty shocks do not propagate like aggregate supply shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014090743
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
This paper investigates the impacts of inflation uncertainty on inflation and economic activities. We take three steps …. We first put together various measures of inflation uncertainty—including survey- and model-based - and extract a common … inflation uncertainty for the group of seven advanced economies and seven large emerging market economies. Using the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257675
We analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth by … inflation uncertainty diminishes growth rates, mainly at a high-inflation regime. Finally, real uncertainty has mixed effects on … average inflation, while the effect of nominal uncertainty is typically positive, especially so during inflationary periods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011065298
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309596
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370512
following Taylor's rule but a policy where besides inflation other objectives including the output growth was also taken into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851965
monitoring changes in cyclical fluctuations of economic variables that may potentially result in an acceleration of inflation … evolution of the inflation index. A synthetic indicator build up from series available in real time (with about a quarter lag …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551983