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A New Methodology for a Quarterly Measure of the Output Gap

Cacciotti, Marco - 2013

This paper presents a new mixed frequency methodology to estimate output gaps and potential output on a quarterly basis. The methodology strongly relies on the production function method commonly agreed at the European level (D'Auria et. al., 2010) but it significantly improves it allowing to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078009

The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates

Graff, Michael; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2021

From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316121

Assessment Criteria for Output Gap Estimates

Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo; Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego - 2021

using output, inflation and unemployment systems. In order to assess the reliability of an output gap estimate two criteria … are adopted. Firstly, the estimate should have forecasting power over inflation. Secondly, the ex post statistical … hand, our UC models for the output gap have limited forecasting power for inflation, since they underperform an arbitrary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320291

A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area : a production function based approach

Tóth, Máté - 2021

This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012429180

Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886924

Output gap measure based on survey data

Hulej, Michał; Grabek, Grzegorz - Narodowy Bank Polski - 2015

comparably to other approaches as a proxy of inflation pressure: real-time data evaluation exercise reveals that RMSE of Phillips … curve inflation forecasts with the RU indicator-based output gap is similar to the RMSE of equivalent specifications with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268618

A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Ganev, Kaloyan - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015

This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011251882

Potential growth : a global database

Çelik, Sinem Kılıç; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2023

Potential growth - the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment - is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250768

A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

Dupasquier, Chantal; Guay, Alain; St-Amant, Pierre - 1998

In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focuses on three simple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014074005

The impact of the COVID-19 shock on euro area potential output : a sectoral approach

Bandera, Nicolò; Bodnár, Katalin; Le Roux, Julien; … - 2022

The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013367033