We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations – in particular at a time of great financial and … answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common … information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results …

A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …

In this paper we build forecasts for Chilean year-on-year inflation using simple time-series models augmented with … different measures of international inflation. Broadly speaking, we construct two families of international inflation factors …. The first family is built using year-on-year inflation of 18 Latin American (LA) countries (excluding Chile). The second …

This paper investigates the possibility of constructing a composite leading indicator (CLI) of Tunisian inflation. For … doing so, partial information about future inflation rate provided by a number of basic series is analyzed first. Based on …), real effective exchange rate and crude petroleum production, are important leading indicators for inflation rate in Tunisia …

This paper investigates the possibility of constructing a composite leading indicator (CLI) of Tunisian inflation. For … doing so, partial information about future inflation rate provided by a number of basic series is analyzed first. Based on …), real effective exchange rate and crude petroleum production, are important leading indicators for inflation rate in Tunisia …

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …

Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation … pressuresthat are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging …. Inflation is expected to ease back towards targets over the medium-term as recent shocks unwind, but the 1970s experience is a …

Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a … possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long …-term inflation expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation between 2014 and 2016, and in 2019. Counterfactual simulations …

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over …-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical … developments account for a substantial share of the fall in underlying inflation, mainly in the first part of the low inflation …

predictor of core inflation than other measures …