We construct measures of individual forecasters' subjective uncertainty at horizons ranging from one to five years … uncertainty curve is more linear than the disagreement curve --- uncertainty at the one-year and two-year horizons can almost … perfectly predict uncertainty at the five-year horizon, but not so for disagreement. We document substantial heterogeneity …

2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much … higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the … magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due …

examines the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve … estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation …

In the paper we investigate, which shocks drive inflation in small open economies. We proceed in two steps. First, we … variables. Our results show that in two out of three analyzed countries the fluctuations of inflation are to the largest extent … inflation variability while for the third country the contribution of the commodity shock dominates over the output gap in …

In the paper we have investigated to what extent the behaviour of CPI inflation depends on changes in domestic economic … price indices respond to exchange rate movements and/or foreign inflation. The impact of exchange rate is most substantial … indices for items sensitive to domestic economic activity and formed an index which, taking into account uncertainty and …

This paper models inflation by combining the multi-country framework of one of its authors (Forbes) with the nonlinear … nonlinear when inflation is low, in which case excess economic slack has little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent … meaningful Phillips curve relationship between slack and inflation when slack is negative (i.e., when output is above long …

This paper aims to investigate whether the effect of inflation expectations, exchange rate, money supply, industrial … production and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto … Regression model with time varying transition probabilities to a generic inflation model is implemented for the period 2003 …