This project presents the analytical framework for macroprudential policy (AFMaP) developed at the Financial Stability Directorate of the Banque de France that could be used to calibrate macroprudential instruments and to provide analytical support to macroprudential policy decision making. In...

We develop a theoretically-based statistical technique to identify a conservative lower bound for house prices. Leveraging a model based upon consumer and investor incentives, we are able to explain the depth of housing market downturns at both the national and state level over a variety of...

This paper explores the modelling of time-varying dynamics of the elasticity of substitution between money and liquid assets considered near-money. The liquidity premium between near-money assets over other safe but illiquid assets can vary with time, depending on economic conditions. The model...

Singular distributions, such as the Marshall-Olkin one, assign a probability mass to the simultaneous occurrence of events. Aim of this paper is to: i) provide systemic risk measures based on singular distributions; ii) evaluate the presence of a singular component in the joint default...

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the...

We build upon a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression (MSBVAR) model to study how the credit default swaps market in the euro area becomes an important chain in the propagation of shocks through the entire financial system. The study sheds light on the regime-dependent...

I provide evidence that financial contagion risk is an important source of the equity risk premium. Banks' contributions to aggregate financial contagion are estimated in a state space framework and linked to systemic risk. Greater bank connectedness today leads to increased systemic risk 3-12...

The second Basel Capital Accord points to market discipline as a tool to reinforce capital standards and supervision in promoting bank safety and soundness. The Bank for International Settlements contends that market discipline imposes strong incentives on banks to operate in a safe and...

Italian Abstract: Presentiamo un modello stocastico multivariato, per sviluppare stress test finalizzati a valutare l'adeguatezza patrimoniale delle banche e il loro grado di fragilità finanziaria. L'articolo fornisce una descrizione teorica del metodo e delle caratteristiche essenziali del...

In this paper, we analyze the impact of a decline in property prices that leads to stressed recovery rates for collateral on the loss given default (LGD) parameter in portfolios of mortgage loans. We prove that the average LGD's stress sensitivity depends on the portfolio's loan-to-value (LTV-)...