The estimation of expected security returns is one of the major tasks for the practical implementationof the Markowitz portfolio optimization. Against this background, in 1992 Black and Littermandeveloped an approach based on (theoretically established) expected equilibrium returns whichaccounts...

In this paper the relation between aggregate mutual fund flows and stock market returns isanalysed with respect to three issues. First, we study the relation between fund flows andlong-term realized returns (past, current and future). Second, we find out that fund flows arenot driven by...

Using a new data set on investor sentiment we show that institutional and individualsentiment proxy for smart money and noise trader risk, respectively. First, usingbias-adjusted long-horizon regressions, we document that institutional sentiment forecastsstock market returns at intermediate...

The puzzling evidence of seemingly high momentum returns is related to an understanding ofrisk as a simple covariance. If we consider, however, risk in higher-order statistical moments,momentum returns appear less advantageous.

We find that price and earnings momentum are pervasive features of international equitymarkets when controlling for data snooping biases. For European countries, we find that pricemomentum is subsumed by earnings momentum on an aggregate level. However, this rationaledoes not apply to each and...

The most relevant practical impediment to an application of the Markowitz portfolio selectionapproach is the problem of estimating return moments, in particular return expectations. We analyzethe consequences of using return estimates implied by analysts’ dividend forecasts under the...

In the literature, implied rates of return are suggested as estimators for future expected oneperiodreturns because of their property not being prone to the discount rate effect. The discount rateeffect describes the problem that changes in expected future one-period returns lead to...

This interdisciplinary paper explains how mathematical techniques of stochastic optimal control can be applied to the recent subprime mortgage crisis. Why did the financial markets fail to anticipate the recent debt crisis, despite the large literature in mathematical finance concerning optimal...

We use a unique and comprehensive data set on open-end real estate funds in Germany to study a liquidity crisis that hit this industry between 2005 and 2006. Since this industry is comparably unregulated our data set permits us to contrast competing explanations of liquidity crisis. We find that...

A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...