Value-at-Risk, known as VaR, gives a prediction with a certain level of confidence of potential portfolio losses that may be encountered over a specified time period due to adverse price movements in the portfolio's assets. For example, a VaR of 1 million dollars at the 95% level of confidence...

Empirical tests were made of components of the corn basis in the U.S. utilizing a general theory of intertemporal price relationships for storable commodities. These tests showed that the basis consists of a risk premium, a speculative component, and a maturity basis apart from other factors...

The lean hog futures contract is replacing the live hog futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange beginning with the February 1997 contract. The lean hog futures will be cash settled based on a broad-based lean hog price index, eliminating terminal markets from the price discovery...

Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series...

The distributional behavior of futures price spreads is examined for four commodities: corn, live cattle, gold and T-bonds. Remarkably different results are found over commodities, time period, and sample size. Actual spread changes for the smaller sample size of gold and T-bonds and for corn...

Empirical analysis examines the presence of basis risk, speculative component, and expected maturity basis component in basis relationships for nonstorable commodities. The results indicate that all three above components exist in both cattle and hog markets. The basis risk and speculative...

Value-at-Risk, known as VaR, gives a prediction of potential portfolio losses, with a certain level of confidence, that may be encountered over a specified time period due to adverse price movements in the portfolio's assets. For example, a VaR of 1 million dollars at the 95% level of confidence...