I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …

A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique … simple adaptive expectations.We show that for a range of processes, monetary policy remains subject to the Lucas critique …

reasons why adaptive learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large …

frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the …

and inflation indexation, that are typically needed in monetary models with rational expectations to match the persistence … replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop near zero. This ?nding suggests that … persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. The posterior model probabilities show that the …

expectations to match the inertia in the data and to improve the fit of estimated New Keynesian Phillips curves. The empirical … results show that when learning replaces the assumption of fully rational expectations, structural sources of persistence in …

rational expectations. This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and it allows for learning instead. Economic … agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. I estimate the model by …

expectations to match the inertia in the data and to improve the fit of estimated New Keynesian Phillips curves. The empirical … results show that when learning replaces the assumption of fully rational expectations, structural sources of persistence in …

The notion of optimized rational behavior in the formation of expectations is used in this note to study the dynamics …