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Have You Heard the News? How Real-Life Expectations React to Publicity

van der Wiel, Karen - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

As evidence is accumulating that subjective expectations influence behavior and that these expectations are sometimes … biased, it becomes policy-relevant to know how to influence individuals' expectations. Information in the media is likely to … real-life expectations formation process. For this purpose, an exceptional Dutch dataset on monthly expectations regarding …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969323

A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model

Branch, Wiliam; Evans, George W. - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2005

We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763171

Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks

Yildizoglu, Murat - Groupe de Recherche en Économie Théorique et … - 2001

In this methodological work I explore the possibility of explicitly modelling expec-tations conditioning the R … through the concept of internal model . The last part of the article uses artificial neural networks to model the expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005133009

Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena

Colucci, Domenico; Valori, Vincenzo - Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa, … - 2009

supply. The firms are assumed to differ in a key parameter governing price expectations which we suppose to be adaptive. We … behavioural) degrees of instability. We take up the issue of transitional dynamics and speed of convergence when the system is … stable and characterise parametric configurations that maximise the speed of convergence. Motivated by the difficulty to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005103428

Optimistic, but not in Control: Life-Orientation and the Theory of mixed Control

Urbig, Diemo; Monsen, Erik - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

Why are some people more optimistic about their life than others? Literature on locus of control suggests that optimism is associated with the belief that oneâ€™s life outcomes are controlled by internal factors, such as ability, instead of external factors, such as powerful others or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051053

Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy

Branch, Wiliam; Carlson, John; Evans, George W.; … - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2006

This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker's preferences for price vs. output stability, the learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196104

As if or What? – Expectations and Optimization in a Simple Macroeconomic Environment

Roos, Michael W.M.; Luhan, Wolfgang J. - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2008

In this paper we report the results of a laboratory experiment, in which we observed the behavior of agents in a simple macroeconomic setting. The structure of the economy was only partially known to the players which is a realistic feature of our experiment. We investigate whether subjects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005738726

Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account

Davies, Ronald B.; Shea, Paul - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2003

previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593741

Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off

Branch, Wiliam; Carlson, John; Evans, George W.; … - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2004

processing rate. Although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility, it indirectly anchors expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593745

Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning

Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2003

Forward-looking monetary models with Taylor-type interest rate rules are known to generate indeterminacies, with a potential dependence on extraneous "sunspots," for some structural and policy parameters. We investigate the stability of these solutions under adaptive learning, focusing on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593762