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Home price expectations and spending : evidence from a field experiment
Anand Chopra, Felix; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field … experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured … in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the experiment we exogenously vary households' home price expectations by providing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284713
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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
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Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium
Perico Ortiz, Daniel - 2023
This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in … regarding specific topics, exerts a significant influence on inflation compensation, expectations, and risk premiums. We observe … contributes to the understanding of media influence on financial markets, specifically in shaping inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374818
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Equilibrium Selection under Different Learning Modes in Supermodular Games.
Kaarboe, O.M.; Tieman, A.F. - Institutt for Økonomi, Universitetet i Bergen - 1999
We apply the dynamic stochastic framework proposed by recent evolutionary literature to the class of strict supermodular games when two simple behavior rules coexist in the population, imitation and myopic optimization.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783558
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The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals
den Berg, Gerard J. van; Bergemann, Annette; Caliendo, Marco - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008
Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects are hard to identify without model assumptions. We develop a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job-search behavioral outcomes, like the reservation wage,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005761837
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Equity Return Predictability, Time Varying Volatility and Learning About the Permanence of Shocks
Tortorice, Daniel L. - Department of Economics, International Business School, … - 2014
volatility over the benchmark rational expectations case and exactly matches the standard deviation of consumption. Finally, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896682
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A Note on the Representative Adaptive Learning Algorithm
Galimberti, Jaqueson; Berardi, Michele - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2014
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762441
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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - In: Economics Letters 124 (2014) 1, pp. 104-107
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784969
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Foreword - Special Issue on Rational Beliefs Theory
Motolese, Maurizio; Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe - In: Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali 115 (2007) 3, pp. 292-292
The Rational Beliefs Theory is founded on the observation that in most situations the same data may be rationally explained (in terms of a statistical model) in many different ways. This is obvious in a world where there is a limited number of observations. The novel idea of the Rational Beliefs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010786840
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Rational Beliefs Theory: A Review
Motolese, Maurizio; Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe - In: Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali 115 (2007) 3, pp. 293-326
The Rational Beliefs Theory is founded on the observation that in most situations the same data may be rationally explained (in terms of a statistical model) in many different ways. This is obvious in a world where there is a limited number of observations. The novel idea of the Rational Beliefs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010786963