This study examines the dynamic economic relationships between the fundamental variables that influence natural gas prices within the U.S. market. We utilize a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and Markov switching models to investigate the impact and stability of regime switches between...

According to the standard analysis of commodity prices, stockpiling is a necessary signature of speculation. This paper develops an approach suggesting that speculation may temporarily push crude oil prices above the level justified by physical-market fundamentals, without necessarily resulting...

The optimal management of a non-renewable resource extraction project is studied when input and output prices follow correlated stochastic processes. The decision problem is specified by two Bellman equations describing the project when it is currently operating or mothballed. Solutions are...

Using proprietary energy futures position data, we provide evidence that mean hedger profits are negative while speculator (especially hedge fund) profits are positive; that speculators and hedgers who hold long (short) positions when likely hedgers in aggregate are net short (long) have higher...

We provide an empirical analysis of the relationship between spot and futures prices in interconnected regional Australian electricity markets. Examining ex-post risk premiums in futures markets, we find positive and significant risk premiums for several of the considered regions. Therefore,...

We explore the implications for asset prices and implied volatilities in an equilibrium model of commodity production. Production of the commodity can be carried out in one of two regimes. In the first regime the reserves are set in constant decline while in the second regime new additions to...

This paper investigates model dynamics and risk premia in the short term market for crude oil futures. Stochastic volatility models, with and without jumps, are estimated using data on both futures and option prices. As an economic application we apply the estimated models to the pricing of...

This article examines whether nonlinear crude oil effect observed in aggregate US stock return can be explained by unexpected shocks from the crude oil market. I separate the distribution of aggregate US stock return into variance component driven by smoothly arriving news information and...

The liberalization of electricity markets has forced the energy producing companies to react to the new situation. The abolishment of monopolies and the launch of open markets have increased the need of calculating costs closer to the profit frontier to be still competitive, not only against the...

This paper presents a method for evaluation of investments in decentralized renewable power generation under price uncertainty. The analysis is applicable for a building owner with an electricity load and a renewable resource that can be utilized for power generation. The owner of the building...