Based on OECD evidence, equity/housing-price busts and credit crunches are followed by substantial increases in public consumption. These increases in unproductive public spending lead to increases in distortionary marginal taxes, a policy in sharp contrast with presumably optimal Keynesian...

We consider a sequential decision problem where the decision maker is informed of the actual payoff with delay. We introduce a new condition, which generalizes the condition given by Blackwell and ensures that the decision maker can approach a fixed closed and convex set under delay. We show how...

In this paper, the origins and development of behavioural economics, beginning with the pioneering works of Herbert Simon (1953) and Ward Edwards (1954), is traced, described and (critically) discussed, in some detail. Two kinds of behavioural economics – classical and modern – are...

This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the...

In many real-life contexts, inventory levels are only incompletely observed due to nonobservation of demand, discrepancies in transmitting sales data, transaction errors, spoilage, misplacement, or theft of inventory. We study a periodic review inventory system where the demand is not observed...

Information delays exist in an inventory system when it takes time to collect, process, validate, and transmit inventory/demand data. A general framework is developed in this paper to describe information flows in an inventory system with information delays. We characterize the suffcient...

Information delays exist when the most recent inventory information available to the inventory manager (IM) is dated; namely, the IM observes only the inventory level of an earlier period. We introduce information delays into the standard multiperiod stochastic inventory problem with backorders....

Information delays exist when the most recent inventory information available to the Inventory Manager (IM) is dated. Such situations arise when it takes a while to process the demand data, count the inventory, and pass the results to the IM. We show that the optimal total inventory-related cost...

Information delays exist when the most recent inventory information available to the Inventory Manager (IM) is dated. In other words, the IM observes only the inventory level that belongs to an earlier period. Such situations are not uncommon, and they arise when it takes a while to process the...

We develop a general filtering framework for the problem of estimating the state of a system whose dynamics is governed by a discrete-time Markov process. We describe applications to inventory control systems with partial observations. We introduce conditional distributions and unnormalized...