Recent theoretical research in business cycle modelling has aimed at putting forward a unified framework for studying both short-term cycles and long-term growth. Empirical research based on structural vector-autoregression has established that the same factors which drive long-run growth also...

This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01-2013:06. To achieve that, we extend the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) dynamic...

This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01–2013:06. To achieve that, an extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012)...

This paper clarifies the empirical source of the debate on the effect of technology shocks on hours worked. We find that the contrasting conclusions from levels and differenced VAR specifications can be explained by a small, but important, low frequency co-movement between hours worked and...

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers...

Objective: The objective of the article is to prove the empirical and predictive value of the aggregate opinions of businesses and households for expanding cyclical macroeconomic data in Russia, especially during the coronavirus shocks. Research Design & Methods: We use qualitative information...

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers...

Business surveys or conjuncture surveys are specific statiostical researches, but complementary to traditional, official statistics.While official statistics provide quantitive information regardin the level,structure and evolution of varied economic process and phenomena, business surveys offer...

For the purpose of monetary policy analyses dynamic multivariate models are usually applied. The reason is the presence of significant lags between an action and the appropriate effects in the economy. We use the concept of structural VAR models, widely used approach next to the DSGE and...