This study examines what role the concept of endogenous uncertainty can have in explaining a phenomenon of international financial markets, the forward discount bias. The forward discount bias puzzle is unexplained by models assuming economic agents have full knowledge of the structure of the...

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally...

We propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model with coupling mechanism to study Financial crisis with contagion effect. It manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during "Black Monday" of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in...

The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...

With the development of globalization and regional market integration, regional markets with common currency emerge. We develop a heterogeneous agents model based on the frameworks of Day and Huang (1990) as well as Westerhoff and Dieci (2006). Two markets using same currency are populated by...

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals’ expectations vary considerably as they generally...

Traders in global markets operate at different local times-of-day. Suboptimal times-of-day may produce sleepiness due to daily variations in sleep/wake patterns and possibly also increased accumulation of hours awake. Global asset markets imply significantly increased heterogeneity in circadian...

We study the expectations of individual forecasters in the foreign exchange market. We find that the survey risk premium is less countercyclical than the rational risk premium, primarily because it is not related to the forward premium. We also find that forecasters learn from their own forecast...

To understand macroeconomic risks underlying currency carry trades, I propose exploiting rich source of information from analysts’ economic growth forecasts. Specifically, I obtain measures of global growth prospects from the cross-analyst distribution of real GDP growth forecasts. I find that...