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on Man and Society -- Chapter 3. Bifurcations, Chaos, and Unpredictability -- Chapter 4. Self-Organization, Catastrophes …
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Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated …
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This paper introduces a new theoretic entity, a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. Abstractions used in the evaluation stage of decision making typically involve nominalist heuristics that are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes...
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the Black Scholes formulae to forward exchange rates and contributed to sequel financial crises including that of 2007 …
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We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non …-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are …
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Access to capacity is often considered to be uncertain, causing airlines to build buffer times into their flight schedules in anticipation of potential delays. Similarly, air navigation service providers use capacity buffers to overcome potential safety standard violations. However, the use of...
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