Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. Wemodel growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns:...

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations in which consumers form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to changes in fundamentals (news) from those...

Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation, particularly in the aftermath of credit booms? We present a model of persistent aggregate demand shortage based on strong liquidity preferences of households, in which we incorporate financial imperfections to study...

Disaster models are typically agnostic as to what spawns tail events, but are often calibrated on labor shocks. Using a novel way to construct rare event factors using the CEX survey data, I study whether the type of idiosyncratic shock modeled matters empirically. I estimate an augmented...

We develop a stylized two-sector business cycle model with endogenous firm dynamics in the investment goods sector. The positive correlation between firms' profitability and the relative price of investment goods generates an endogenous persistence mechanism in productivity dynamics which drives...

I construct an infinite-horizon dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a collateral constraint and actual default in equilibrium. Entrepreneurs borrow from households through non-recourse debt contracts backed by capital goods. By taking into account the non-linear payoffs of the...

We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...

The common approach to evaluating a model in the structural VAR literature is to compare the impulse responses from structural VARs run on the data to the theoretical impulse responses from the model. The Sims-Cogley-Nason approach instead compares the structural VARs run on the data to...

Robert Solow has criticized our 2006 Journal of Economic Perspectives essay describing "Modern Macroeconomics in Practice." Solow eloquently voices the commonly heard complaint that too much macroeconomic work today starts with a model with a single type of agent. We argue that modern...

Este documento ofrece un argumento teórico para comprender el proceso dinámico de fluctuación cíclica de la economía colombiana durante el período 1990-2003. Se contrastan dos hipótesis: la primera, es necesario formular un proceso multiperíodo para describir la dinámica de...