We consider within-group estimation of higher-order autoregressive panel models with exogenous regressors and fixed effects, where the lag order is possibly misspecified. Even when disregarding the misspecification bias, the fixed-effect bias formula is quite different from the correctly...

This paper studies large and moderate deviation properties of a realized volatility statistic of high frequency financial data. We establish a large deviation principle for the realized volatility when the number of high frequency observations in a fixed time interval increases to infinity. Our...

We generalize the Unobserved Components (UC) model to allow the permanent component to have different dynamics than the transitory components when decomposing US economic activity using a multivariate UC model of (log) output, consumption and investment. We find that these proposed dynamics in...

This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The univariate analysis based on fractional integration aims to determine whether the series are I(1) (in which case markets might be efficient) or alternatively I(d) with...

This paper develops a discrete, nonlinear growth cycle model for a macroeconomy. The nonlinearities, which correspond to empirical relationships between profitability and capacity utilization in the postwar U.S. economy, can produce stable, periodic and chaotic behavior. These behaviors are...

Numerous empirical studies have shown that certain exponential Levy models are able to fit the empirical distribution of daily financial returns quite well. By contrast, very few papers have considered intraday data in spite of their growing importance. In this paper, we fill this gap by...

This study extends the gravity model to include a new measure of the trading partners' location relative to other countries. The proposed measure is close in spirit to the theory of gravity, since it is based on the concept of the world trade center. The measure is statistically significant when...

This paper examines the frequency-domain implications of the serial correlation common feature in order to evaluate its merits as an indicator of common business cycles among economic variables. It is shown that the presence of the serial correlation common feature in the first differences of a...