Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01?2001.12, has the following features. We...

We present several methods for the maximization of expected profits when households are selected from a mailing list for a direct mail campaign. The response elicited from the campaign can vary over households, as is the case with fund raising or mail order selling. The decisions taken by the...

Abstract We examine the effect of business group affiliation on corporate investment behavior in India. We use a data set containing 684 Indian listed companies for the 1989-1997 period. We estimate a simple investment equation and find evidence that cash flow has a positive effect on investment...

In this paper we analyze the dynamics of Dutch economic growth for the period 1815-1997. By applying a simple econometric technique, important braking points in the timeseries are traced. It seems that three phases of growth can be discerned and that these phases are characterized by different...

This paper employs concepts from information theory in factor models. We show that in the exact factor model the whole distribution of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix contributes to the information and not only the largest ones. In addition, we derive the condition that the first q say...

We extend the citizen candidate framework by allowing for endogenous party formation. When a party is formed, any member of that party that wants to be a candidate in the election, first has to run in the primary election of her party. We show that in equilibrium one left-wing and one right-wing...

In this paper I derive a complete characterization for the equilibria that may arise in a binary choice interaction model with a ?nite number of interacting agents. In particular, the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents and the set of equilibria is derived.

In this paper we try to measure oil price uncertainty. The measure of uncertainty is based on the conditional standard deviations which are derived from univariate (G)ARCH models. The measure of uncertainty we choose is the within-year high-low range of the conditional standard deviations. It is...

The well-known Klein-Monti model of bank behavior considers a monopolistic bank. We demonstrate that this model's results on the comparative static effects of a change in the exogenous interbank market interest rate do not necessarily hold in oligopolistic Cournot or Stackelberg generalizations....

We show by means of a bank relationship model that after monetary policy tightening, public firms are more likely to decrease their demand for bank loans than private firms, which are typically more dependent on bank credit and benefit more from relationship lending. In order to test this...