In recent years, a salient and general motivation of researchers of a number of central banks has been to enhance macroeconometric models by Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The central banks use the models to help produce economic projections, the analysis of policy issues,...

This paper examines the impact of public R&D subsidies on firm's R&D activities using micro-data on Japanese manufacturing firms from 1995 to 2005. We focus on two effects. One is the quantitative impact of whether the public R&D subsidies crowed out firm's own R&D investment or not. The other...

Economists unanimously agree that economic agents' expectations are crucially important in determining macroeconomic outcomes. However, mainstream macroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational, leaving unexamined the fundamental question whether individual agents' actual...

This paper has estimated lifetime benefits and burdens of each future generation and underlying fiscal situation.Net burdens could be significantly different among the future generations depending on how to improve the primary fiscal balance, even though the government debt be eliminated in...

This study addresses the case of Tianjin in China and seeks a suitable environmental policy for the region. The Tianjin inter-regional input-output table is estimated and the economic and environmental impacts of environmental conservation technologies are measured. This study investigates the...

This paper proposes a new method to estimate parameters of dynamic general equilibrium models under a liquidity trap based on the Monte Carlo particle filter, proposed by Kitagawa (1996) and Gordon et al. (1993), and a self-organizing state space model, proposed by Kitagawa (1998). This method...

In this paper, we have surveyed the effects of European climate change policy on European economies and societies, and analyzed them empirically. The paper consists of four parts. Namely, 1) a survey of ex-ante studies and ex-post literatures on the cost assessments of European Union Emissions...

Using micro-data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (JPSC), this paper analyzed an impact of macroeconomic conditions at graduation on the future job opportunities of female workers in Japan. More specifically, we examined whether the failure of obtaining a regular job at the time of...

This paper aims to take stock of four years of ESP forecast experience since its launch in 2004. The consensus performs well, compared to individual forecasters, which is confirmed probably for the first time in Japan. It satisfies the average form of rational expectations hypothesis defined in...

This paper conducts a survey asking economists, but not specialists of forecasting, to submit their forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation rates for 2007Q4, 2008Q1 and FY 2009, and compares the responses with the corresponding results of the ESP forecasts, a monthly survey of...