This paper proposes a new method to estimate parameters, natural rates, and business cycles of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models simultaneously and consistently. It is based on the Monte Carlo particle filter and a self-organizing state space model. In our method, we estimate the...

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash or near-cash U.S. antipoverty program. Taxpayers gain access to the EITC by having incomes below certain thresholds and by filing a tax return. For a taxpayer to receive a larger EITC available to families with children, the EITC-qualifying...

Recently, the damage estimations for the anticipated Tokyo Inland Earthquake released by the Center of Disaster Management Council assumed extensive damage, including a death toll of approximately 11,000 people, the collapse of 850,000 buildings, and a maximum economic loss of 112 trillion yen...

We constructed an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility to analyze the effect of child benefits and pensions on welfare for current and future generations. The following results were obtained. First, when financial sustainability is not taken into account, the best policy to...

We shall discuss the possibility of improving the current estimation method of Japanese Quarterly GDP. We re-consider the current estimation method of Fixed Investment and Inventory Investments, and the current seasonal adjustment practice. We shall propose some statistical ways in the view of...

The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) took note of the Copenhagen Accord inDecember 2009, in which each country was requested to provide her target of reductionin greenhouse gas emissions for 2020 to the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCC). Japanese Government was...

Japanese farmers have been encouraged to diversify into agriculture-related activities, such as processing agricultural products and managing restaurants, in order to increase their income since the early 1990s. This paper examines the effect of agriculture-related activities on total factor...

The purpose of this paper is to simulate Japan's economic growth path to 2020 based on the macro econometric models that incorporate IT capital stock and network effects. For these purpose we build three types of macro econometric model modifying a model prepared by Japan Center for Economic...

The U.S. population reached 300 million on October 2006, showing that the pace of population growth had not yet stagnated. The present study aims to answer the question of why among developed countries, almost all of which have entered into or are on the verge of a phase of population decline,...

In this paper, the impact of corporate income tax systems on investment at individual firms is evaluated by examining (1) distribution of marginal effective tax rates (METRs), (2) functions of tax adjusted capital costs considering personal income taxes, and (3) distribution of elasticity of...