The banks are central elements of a market economy. In more than one way, they facilitate business transactions by acting as depositor and lender for many actors in the domestic and international economy. The banking industry in Nigeria has expanded in size in terms of assets in the last 60...

This paper studies time varying bond returns via macroeconomic variables. We find that a single macro index consisting of inflation, real activities and money can predict annual excess bond returns of 1-5 year maturities with R-squares up to 37%. The macro factor has a symmetric tent-shape, when...

This paper investigates the source of predictability of bond risk premia by means of long-term forward interest rates. We show that the predictive ability of forward rates could be due to the high serial correlation and cross-correlation of bond prices. After a simple reparametrization of models...

Crises have cleansing effects: Low-quality firms face greater financial shortfalls and invest less than high-quality firms. Public liquidity support preserves the overall production capacity. However, by dampening the cleansing effects, it distorts the quality distribution and reduces the total...

We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

Un grupo de investigadores especialistas en distintas áreas del conocimiento se reúne para imaginar los próximos cincuenta años. Se plantean el reto de pensar qué país encontraría un peruano que, tras un prolongado sueño, despertará en el año 2062. Proyectar escenarios futuros implica,...

This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Latvia that would be suitable for policy analysis and forecasting purposes at Latvijas Banka. For that purpose, the DSGE model with financial frictions of Christiano, Trabandt and Walentin (2011) is adapted to Latvia's...

Вводится в научный оборот расширенная модель Харрода, представленная в его книге 1973 года. Расширенный вариант модели Харрода позволяет учесть эффект изменений...

В настоящем отчёте анализируются проблемы и перспективы финансово-денежной политики России. Сделаны выводы о целесообразности сохранения национальной...