We consider the fitting of normal or t-component mixture models to multivariate data, using maximum likelikhood via the EM algorithm. This approach requires the initial specification of an initial estimate of the vector of unknown parameters, or equivalently of an initial classification of the...

One feature of experimental work is the heterogeneity in risk attitudes and probability distortion displayed by agents. We outline a more general non-expected utility model, which nests the models of Markowitz, and Kahneman and Tversky. The model can generate the standard favourite-longshot bias...

A model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.

The answer to this question, based on a study of 1000 greyhound races, is 'no'. Although the efficient markets hypothesis asserts that speculative market prices optimally encapsulate all relevant information, it is found that 'Shin probabilities' (based on Shin, 1993), in which a dog's winning...

Two versions of a fractionally cointegrating vector error correction model (FVECM) are presented. In the case of regular cointegration, linear combinations of fractionally integrated variables are integrated to lower order. Generalized cointegration is defined as the case where the cointegrating...

It is well known that the parametric version of Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) proposed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Tversky and Kahneman (1992) (KT) can explain gambling at actuarially unfair odds on long shots due to the over weighting of small probabilities. However betting on odds...