Using a Markov regime switching model, this article presents evidence on the well-known January effect on stock returns. The specification allows a distinction to be drawn between two regimes, one with high volatility and other with low volatility. We obtain a time-varying January effect that...

This zip archive contains implementations of the trend-cycle-season filter in Eviews, Excel, and MatLab. The trend-cycle-season filter is another univariate method to decompose a time series into a trend, a cyclical and a seasonal component: the Trend-Cycle filter (TC filter) and its extension,...

In this paper we feature state-of-the-art econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for univariate linear time series, namely ARIMA-GARCH models. We present a unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes and we explain in detail, although...

In this paper we propose a model for monthly inflation with stochastic trend, seasonal and transitory components with QGARCH disturbances. This model distinguishes whether the long-run or short-run components are heteroscedastic. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with these components may...

Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present....

In this paper we deal with the prediction theory of long memory processes. After investigating the general theory relating to convergence of moments of the nonlinear least squares estimators, we evaluate the asymptotic prediction mean squared error of two predictors. One is defined by using the...

This paper models the seasonal dynamics in quarterly industrial production for India. For this, we extend the time-varying smooth transition autoregression (TV-STAR) model to allow for independent regime-switching behaviour in the deterministic seasonal and cyclical components. This yields the...