We propose a simple network–based methodology for ranking systemically important financial institutions. We view the risks of firms –including both the financial sector and the real economy– as a network with nodes representing the volatility shocks. The metric for the connections of the...

This paper analyzes empirically whether and if so to what extent later entrants in the European mobile telephony industry have a disadvantage vis-à-vis incumbents and early mover entrants. To analyze this question a dynamic model of market share development and a series of static models are...

In this paper, we analyze the interaction between an incumbent firm's financial contract with abank and its product market decisions in the face of the threat of entry, in a dynamic model.The main results of the paper are: there exists a separating equilibrium with no limit pricing; thelow-cost...

Recent advances in evolutionary theory have important implications for environmental economics. A short overview is offered of evolutionarythinking in economics. Subsequently, major concepts and approaches inevolutionary biology and evolutionary economics are presented andcompared. Attention is...

A model framework, SIMBIOSES, is presented which describes economic activities and relatedmaterial, substance and energy flows in a multi-region and multi-sector economic system. Theconceptual design of the framework is discussed in relation to current issues on "dematerialization"and...

Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics</I> (2008). Vol. 70 issue 1, pages 23-51.<P> This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series...</p></i>

Health shocks are among the most important unprotected risks for microfinance clients, but the take-up of micro health insurance typically remains limited. This paper attributes low enrolment rates to a social dilemma. Our theory is that in jointly liable groups, insurance is a public good....

This discussion paper resulted in a chapter in: (K. Bocker (Ed.)) 'Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting - Volume II: Examples and Applications from Finance', 2010, London: Riskbooks.<P> This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of...</p>

We study mergers in a market where N firms sell a homogeneous good and consumers search sequentially to discover prices. The main motivation for such an analysis is that mergers generally affect market prices and thereby, in a search environment, the search behavior of consumers. Endogenous...