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During the Arab banks-summit in Paris last June 2008, the project of monetary integration in the Maghreb (Algeria … Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) and expanded last years to cover the possibility of establishing the Maghreb monetary union. Our … aim in this paper consists in assessing the relevance of such a project for three Maghreb countries: Algeria, Morocco and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008923023
The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904307
Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market? Using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether real exchange rate disequilibria systematically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780739
This essay argues that the Achilles heel of the international monetary and financial system is that it amplifies the "excess financial elasticity" of domestic policy regimes, ie it exacerbates their inability to prevent the build-up of financial imbalances, or outsize financial cycles, that lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032507
Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155688
Central banks repo market operations and liquidity infusions occasion a structural liquidity mismatch in bank balance sheets and increase the dependence on central bank liquidity. This paper argues for what I term “Circular Monetary Economics”, an approach to monetary policy that seeks to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825201
Since Barnett derived the user cost price of money, the economic theory of monetary services aggregation has been developed and extended into a field of its own with solid foundations in microeconomic theory. Divisia monetary aggregates have repeatedly been shown to be strictly preferable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626752
The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental, market-derived, and monetary model. Despite differences between forecasting approaches, models produced generally similar results. Long-term forecasts were more accurate than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013288939
Two extraordinary inflation surprises of the last generation were the longstanding inflation shortfall from central bank targets and now the pandemic inflationary.Inflation shortfalls can be attributed to characteristics of monetary systems represented by a model with increasing inelasticity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404759
In this paper, we develop a structural model to estimate the current level of the natural rate for a small open economy, featuring a rich set of shocks to provide economic intuition for its underlying drivers. The model follows the New Keynesian tradition with several frictions and is able to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382958