This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...

In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiples structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Spanish environmental Kuznets curve during the period 1857-2007. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently...

This paper empirically evaluates the impact and effect of oil price fluctuations and shocks on French aggregate economic performance, industrial production index and inflation rate. Our methodology makes use of a multivariate VAR approach to analyse the stability and magnitude of this system by...

The paper focuses on establishing causation in regression analysis in observational settings. Simple static regression analysis cannot establish causality in the absence of a priori theory on possible causal mechanisms or controlled and randomized experiments. However, two regression based...

Building on Kilian and Park's (2009) structural VAR analysis of the effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the U.S. stock market, this paper studies the responses of a broader set of stock markets in six OECD member countries. The focus is on the differences and commonalities in the response...

Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co- integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that...

In this study, long term relationship and causality relationship between electricity consumption and gross domestic product in Turkey for the period 1975-2006 were investigated. As a result of the co-integration analysis made firstly in this study, the long term relationship between the...

The present paper considers an Italian dataset with an annual frequency from 1861 to 2000. It implements Granger non-causality tests between energy consumption and output contrasting methods allowing for structural change with those imposing parameter stability throughout the sample. Though some...

En este trabajo se calculan los efectos que las inversiones previstas de Red Eléctrica de España en la red de transporte de la electricidad ejercerán en la producción y el empleo españoles. Para el corto plazo se estima el convencional modelo de demanda de Leontief a partir de la última...