Fat tails of q-Gaussian distributions of daily log-leverage-returns of 520 North American industrial firms reported by Katz and Tian (2013) imply a significantly higher credit risk at short time-horizons and/or large initial distances to the default barrier than forecasted by traditional...

We present a model of bank passivity and regulatory failure. Banks with low equity positions have more incentives to be passive in liquidating bad loans. We show that they tend to hide distress from regulatory authorities and are ready to offer a higher rate of interest in order to attract...

In this paper we use a reduced form model for the analysis of Portfolio Credit Risk. For this purpose, we fit a Dynamic Factor model, DF, to a large dataset of default rates proxies and macrovariables for Italy. Multi step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both...

In this paper we use a reduced form model for the analysis of Portfolio Credit Risk. For this purpose, we fit a Dynamic Factor model, DF, to a large dataset of default rates proxies and macrovariables for Italy. Multi step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both...

This study focuses on estimating credit rating migration probabilities using a continuous-record approach while controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic and systematic risk factors. Short- and long-run relationships between asset quality and obligor ratings are modeled and quantified using...

We present statistical backtesting procedures applicable in situations where few and heterogeneous probabilities have to be evaluated, as is typically the case when forecasting country default risk. These tests are applied to a sample of default probabilities assessed for 19 emerging market and...

Cost and profit efficiency (CE and PE) are key to evaluate bank performance. But efficiency improvements may imply deteriorating profitability and excessive risk-taking. The dynamic reactions of performance in response to efficiency changes remain unclear on both theoretical and empirical...

We describe a class of quantitative credit risk models that take account of the unavoidable gaps in investors' information. These incomplete information models are structural/reduced form hybrids. They combine the best features of both traditional approaches while avoiding many of their shortcomings

This study estimates the expected default probability on the basis of the option pricing model. Since the estimates of the rate of return on debts and maturity were seldom researched on this approach, we measure the two parameters strictly. Furthermore, we propose an alternative method that can...

This paper proposes an econometric model for conditional forecasting of kibbutz financial distress for a range of one to three years. The primary interest in examining the economic performance of the kibbutz is that its driving characteristic is collective rather than individual...