The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk,...

I describe two amplifications mechanisms that operate during liquidity crises and discuss the scope for central bank policies during crises as well as preventive policies in advance of crises. The first mechanism works through asset prices and balance sheets. A negative shock to the balance...

The turmoil that started with increased defaults in the subprime mortgage market has generated instability in the financial system around the world. To better understand the root causes of this financial instability, we quantify the relative importance of various drivers behind subprime...

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest...

We develop a model of the joint capital structure decisions of banks and their borrowers. Strikingly high bank leverage emerges naturally from the interplay between two sets of forces. First, seniority and diversification reduce bank asset volatility by an order of magnitude relative to that of...

We follow a representative panel of US borrowers to study the suspension of household debt payments (debt forbearance) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March and October of 2020, loans worth $2 trillion entered forbearance. On average, cumulative payments missed per individual in...

Tracking a sample of modified loans underlying private-label mortgage-backed securities, I compare the modification effectiveness of servicers who originated the loan versus those who simply service the loan. The probability of re-default among loans modified by the former is over 25% lower than...

We reconsider the role of financial intermediaries in monetary economics, and explore the hypothesis that the financial intermediary sector is the engine that drives the financial cycle through fluctuations in the price of risk. In this framework, balance sheet quantities emerge as a key...

The recent credit crisis of 2007/08 has raised a debate about the so-called knife-edge properties of financial markets. The paper contributes to the debate shedding light on the controversial relation between risk-diversification and financial stability. We model a financial network where assets...

The Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) bought commercial paper from highly-rated issuers of U.S. dollar commercial paper during the financial crisis of 2008 to 2009. This is the only study to analyze the characteristics of firms selected for this Federal Reserve program. CPFF participants...