commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real … statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an …

PROBLEM SOLVING OF FORECASTING ON SHORT PERIODS IN THE CASE OF TRANSITIONAL STRUCTURE-CHANGING CHARACTER OF DEVELOPMENT …

using these models in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise compared with the forecasts obtained based on the usual linear …

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error … expenditure as suggested by the economic theory. We compare the estimated forecasting values of the endogenous variables to the …, Forecasting, Simulation Analysis, Vector error- correction models JEL Classifications: C15, C32, C53, E0, E6 Working Paper Series …