We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions...

One of the most popular approaches to default probability estimation using market information is the Merton [1974] approach. By explicitly modelling a firm's market value, market value volatility and liability structure over time using contingent claims analysis the Merton model defines a firm...

In a context of complete financial markets where asset prices follow Ito's processes, we characterize the set of consumption processes which are optimal for a given stochastic differential utility (e.g. Duffie and Epstein (1992)) when beliefs are unknown. Necessary and sufficient conditions for...

In this paper, we offer an alternative proof of the Capital Asset Pricing Model when the returns follow a multivariate elliptical distribution. Empirical studies continue to demonstrate the inappropriateness of the normality assumption in modelling asset returns. The class of elliptical...

We extend some known results on a relation between the distribution tails of the continuous local martingale supremum and its quadratic variation to the case of locally square integrable martingale with bounded jumps. The predictable and optional quadratic variations are involved in the main result.

We give explicit upper bounds for convergence rates when approximating (both one- and two-sided general curvlinear) boundary crossing probabilities for the Wiener process by similar probabilities for close boundaries (of simpler form for which computing the possibility is feasible). In...

This paper introduces an easy to follow method for continuous time model estimation. It serves as an introduction on how to convert a state space model from continuous time to discrete time, how to decompose a hybrid stochastic model into a trend model plus a noise model, how to estimate the...

Although national accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview of economic activity, preliminary estimates are subject to much revision before they are regarded as reliable indicators. Oddly enough, the market acts on the preliminary estimates as though they were final and complete....

In this paper we build a hierarchically structured continuous-time model of Keynesian monetary growth. The model is sufficiently rich with respect to markets, sectors and agents and consistent with respect to budget constraints to capture sufficient broad details of actual macroeconomies and so...

In this study we present an alterntive approach to test whether the real estate and equity markets are cointegrated. We develop a nonlinear test which allows for a stochastic trend term as opposed to a deterministic drift term. This is a reasonable approach, because if the real estate market is...