In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China's residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China. We...

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015.This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation acrosscity-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house pricesrise further beyond...

We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model to identify the national, regional, and local factors of the city-level housing price growth in China from 2005 to 2015. During the zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episode in the U.S., local factors account for 78% of variations in the month-on-month city-level...

I develop a new method for approximating and estimating nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I show that any such model can be well approximated by a discrete-state Markov process and estimated using techniques developed in Hamilton (1989). Through Monte Carlo simulations, I demonstrate...

This paper assesses the economy-wide effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks. A precise identification of the unconventional monetary policy shocks is achieved by imposing zero and sign restrictions on a number of impulse responses from a large-dimensional dynamic factor model. In...

Russian Abstract: Данная работа посвящена изучению двух важных элементов трансмиссионного механизма монетарной политики в России в 2010-2014 гг.: эффекту переноса...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

Turkish Abstract: Kovid-19 pandemisi tüm ülkeleri olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu süreçte, ekonomik ve finansal göstergelerde bozulmalar meydana gelmektedir. Bu sebeple, ülkeler pandeminin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmak amacıyla çeşitli para ve maliye politikası tedbirleri uygulamaktadır....

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

Central banks communication has lately become an important tool to guide expectations and its impact on the economy has been acknowledged by the literature. Nowadays central banks speeches face an increasing variety of topics, which are not discriminated by text analysis. In this paper we...