from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …

forecasting performance of Bayesian VAR models is satisfactory for most interest rates and their superiority in performance is …

This paper examines the forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without banking intermediation for the US … forecasting horizon/period. To interpret this finding it is crucial to take into account parameters instabilities showed by a … forecasting performance of output and inflation in the recent period. …

models for forecasting, although this proved to be problem- atic due to estimation and identification issues. Hybrid DSGE … the EU debt crisis. The results of this study can be useful in conducting monetary policy analysis and macro-forecasting …

Standard VAR and Bayesian VAR models are proven to be reliable tools for modeling and forecasting, yet they are still … specifications of the VAR and BVAR models for the IP and Euribor series provide with better forecasting performance. Interestingly …

an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …

-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …

subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting …