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Vector autoregressions have steadily gained in popularity since their introduction in econometrics 25 years ago. A drawback of the otherwise fairly well developed methodology is the inability to incorporate prior beliefs regarding the system's steady state in a satisfactory way. Such prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649059
In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is … report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions considered in the paper. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649366
models for forecasting, although this proved to be problem- atic due to estimation and identification issues. Hybrid DSGE … the EU debt crisis. The results of this study can be useful in conducting monetary policy analysis and macro-forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010796407
monetary policy analysis and macro-forecasting with the use of advanced Bayesian methods. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010656010
models for forecasting, although this proved to be problematic due to estimation and identi.cation issues. Hybrid DSGE models … results of this study can be useful in conducting monetary policy analysis and macro-forecasting in the Euro area. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010618403
Standard VAR and Bayesian VAR models are proven to be reliable tools for modeling and forecasting, yet they are still … specifications of the VAR and BVAR models for the IP and Euribor series provide with better forecasting performance. Interestingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048862
This double-issue contains 11 papers invited for the first special issue on “Computational methods for Russian economic and financial modelling”. It was an attempt to explore and bring together practical, state-of-the-art applications of computational techniques with a particular focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114387
This paper examines the forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without banking intermediation for the US … forecasting horizon/period. To interpret this finding it is crucial to take into account parameters instabilities showed by a … forecasting performance of output and inflation in the recent period. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165203
forecasting performance of Bayesian VAR models is satisfactory for most interest rates and their superiority in performance is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011136571
aggregation for the series in the data set. We consider two evaluation samples for the out-of-sample forecasting exercise to … assess the stability of the forecasting performance. We find that the effect of the data set size on the forecasting … forecasting process. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610958