Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when …), and large BVARs, which differ in the way information is condensed and shrinkage is implemented. We find that: (a) large … shows the opposite pattern; (c) BFAVARs perform well under both evaluation criteria; (d) choosing the degree of shrinkage …

shrinkage. We derive point and density forecasts for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflationconditional on an information … cycle, and on the size of the dataset. Overall, we find that a factor augmented BVAR with shrinkage is competitive in all …

all three purposes - forecasting, story telling, and policy experiments - and review their forecasting record. We also … provide our own real-time assessment of the forecasting performance of the Smets and Wouters (2007) model data up to 2011 …

, estimated shrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I entertain alternative specifications of the zero lower bound: replace the …

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when …), and large BVARs, which differ in the way information is condensed and shrinkage is implemented. We find that: (a) large … shows the opposite pattern; (c) BFAVARs perform well under both evaluation criteria; (d) choosing the degree of shrinkage …

shrinkage. We derive point and density forecasts for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation conditional on an information … cycle, and on the size of the dataset. Overall, we find that a factor augmented BVAR with shrinkage is competitive in all …