In these notes I go over some basic aspects of the analysis of business cycles and aggregate fluctuations from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) perspective. I build a cannonical DSGE model with a small number of representative agents and a large set of distortionnary wedges...

Our objective has been to experiment with diverse economic indicators in order to help equip Ukrainian policymakers with a relatively simple tool, which could deliver warning signals about a possibility of upcoming economic problems and thereby assist the Government in designing policy...

The project has undertaken the following tasks: Based on an analysis of the pattern of growth of the Ukrainian economy since the end of the post-Soviet recession (the year 2000) we have formulated the hypotheses concerning the factors preceding/affecting the upturns and downturns (with a focus...

This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...

In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate...

This paper introduces a new algorithm, the recursive upwind Gauss–Seidel method, andapplies it to solve a standard stochastic growth model in which the technology shocksexhibit heteroskedasticity. This method exploits the fact that the equations definingequilibrium can be viewed as a set of...

This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of changing fiscal policy in a Heterogeneous Interacting Agent (“HIA”) model. The key contributions to the existing HIA complex adaptive trivial system (“CATS”) literature include the addition of a progressive income tax structure, an...

In a small-scale New-Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents’ synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept according to which no substantive prediction...