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Contrary to the common wisdom that asset prices are barely possible to forecast, we show that that high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable. We propose to model them using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407671
augments the prediction problem by covariate forecasting models. In this paper, we present simple alternatives for multi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008939079
produce statistically and regulatory precise VaR forecasts across forecasting horizons, with the implied volatility being … especially accurate in monthly VaR forecasts. The daily range produces inferior forecasting results in terms of regulatory …-step VaR forecasting context as they balance between statistical or regulatory accuracy and capital efficiency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113342
This study explores the predictive power of new estimators of the equity variance risk premium and conditional variance for future excess stock market returns, economic activity, and financial instability, both during and after the last global financial crisis. These estimators are obtained from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925879
Volatility forecasting is crucial for portfolio management, risk management, and pricing of derivative securities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890910
There is evidence that volatility forecasting models that use intraday data provide better forecast accuracy as … fills this gap in the literature and extends previous studies on forecasting stock market volatility in several important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935461
forecasting technique with respect to various volatility estimators. The methodology of volatility estimation included Close … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility has been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. This study examined the …, Garman-Klass, Parkinson, Roger-Satchell, and Yang-Zhang methods and forecasting was done through the ARIMA technique. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870348
Can the degree of predictability found in the data be explained by existing asset pricing models? We provide two theoretical upper bounds on the R-squares of predictive regressions. Using data on the market and component portfolios, we find that the empirical R-squares are significantly greater...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973313
This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974764
forecasting technique with respect to various volatility estimators. The methodology of volatility estimation includes Close … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility had been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. The study examined the …, Garman-Klass, Parkinson, Roger-Satchell and Yang-Zhang methods and forecasting is done through ARIMA technique. The study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860158