The experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious concerns about the accuracy of standard risk measures as tools for the quantification of extreme downward risk. A key reason for this is that risk measures are subject to model risk due, e.g., to specification and estimation...

Classical dimensional analysis in its original form starts by expressing the units for derived quantities, such as force, in terms of power products of basic units etc. This suggests the use of toric ideal theory from algebraic geometry. Within this the Graver basis provides a unique primitive...

In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a simple, effective statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a...

This new SSATP discussion paper reviews the experience of an apparently successful corridor to help understand optimal mix and trade-offs in reviving historical trade route. The Maputo Corridor, which had fallen in disuse during the troubled period in Mozambique, is widely regarded as one the...

We live in an urban age. Over half the world’s population now lives in urban areas, while the urban population is expected to reach 60% by 2030. At the same time, the importance of cities for national economic growth and climate change continues to increase. Three groups of cities will be...

This paper explains the nonneutrality of money from two assumptions: (1) consumers dislike paying prices that exceed some fair markup on firms’ marginal costs; and (2) consumers under infer marginal costs from available information. After an increase in money supply, consumers underappreciate...

In this paper we study how the use of collateral is evolving under the influence of regulatory reform and changing market structure. We start with a critical review of the recent empirical literature on the supply and demand of collateral which has focussed on the issue of ‘collateral...

This paper presents a policy proposal for building a new framework for gathering, measuring and disclosing financial risk information in the global economy. The paper examines the current state of the financial risk framework, notes its advantages and disadvantages and proposes a new construct...

We study a general equilibrium model in which firms choose their capital structure optimally, trading off the tax advantages of debt against the risk of costly default. The costs of default are endogenous: bankrupt firms are forced to liquidate their assets, resulting in a fire sale if there is...

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the pitfalls of diversification by shedding light on a new mechanism under which, full risk diversification can be sub-optimal. In particular, banks must choose the optimal level of diversification in a market where returns display a bimodal...