Why is GDP growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? We identify four possible reasons: (i) poor countries specialize in more volatile sectors; (ii) poor countries specialize in fewer sectors; (iii) poor countries experience more frequent and more severe aggregate shocks...

This paper assesses the relative importance of external shocks in explaining the GDP growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) approach for ?ve countries in the region - Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, and...

This paper provides a fundamental study of China's consumption and output fluctuations. The most recent literature reports that, in the post-1978 period, detrended consumption is significantly more volatile than detrended output in China. This indicates the inability to impose consumption...

This paper studies the economic fluctuations of an open economy such as the French economy. A system of variables containing output, price level, trade balance, real exchange rate and oil prices is analyzed by applying the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology initiated by Sims...

In this paper, we built a general equilibrium model in order to analyze how the prices and allocations are changed by the government consumption which is financed with debt. It is shown the period in with the government spending the employment and output increase. However, in subsequent periods...

This paper provides new insights into expectation-driven cycles by estimating a structural VAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. We use survey-based expectations of the unemployment rate to measure expectations of future developments in economic activity. We find that the...

The rate of time preference (RTP) has traditionally not been regarded as an important source of economic fluctuations. In this paper, I show that it is an important factor influencing economic fluctuations because households must have an expected RTP for the representative household (RTP RH) to...

The benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are usually discussed in the context of reducing structural unemployment rates, especially among the young. Related to this, the long-run benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are extensively analyzed in the literature. However, empirical evidence...

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed a significant source of fluctuations. We present the results of a...