Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey.

The widely studied Reuters/Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is constructed from the answers to five questions from the more comprehensive Reuters/Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Yet little work has been done on what predictive power the information taken from this more thorough compilation of...

FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

Interval confidence and density forecasts, notably in the form of “fan charts”, are useful tools to describe the uncertainty inherent to any point forecast. However, the existing techniques suffer from several drawbacks. We propose a new method to represent uncertainty in realtime that is...

The paper considers the problem of autonomous recessions in the Russian economy, which are explained as a drop of the output caused by endogenous shocks of the supply and/or demand. In order to determine possible factors of the autonomous recession we consider the stylized facts and other...

Turbulence has been the hallmark of the course of Indonesian economic growth. Indonesia was dubbed a “chronic drop-out” in economic performance in 1968, but it then immediately embarked on a growth spurt. Just as accolades to Indonesia's economic pragmatism and economic orthodoxy were...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast from the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...

Analysis of the economic activity in the pre-crisis period of 2000-2008. shows a steady decrease in the efficiency of actual production in Russia. Many businesses come to a threshold of bankruptcy: the profitability and financial strength are low, their products are not competitive, sources of...

Together with the IMF and the World Bank, the EMU is the biggest monetary project in the history of mankind. Its goals are reduction of trade costs between its member-states, increase in the convergence in their relations and their economic growth. The main pillars of the monetary institutions...

In our view, the causes of the crisis are tied to the political change towards a Neoliberal phase from the 1970s on: a wide process of “deregulation” – from the labour market to the globalisation of production, from the national to the international finance – has allowed a partial...