In rare event simulation, we look for estimators such that the relative accuracy of the output is ''controlled'' when the rarity is getting more and more critical. Different robustness properties have been defined in the literature, that an estimator is expected to satisfy. Though, those...

This note analyzes the distributional properties of Pareto Type III random variables. The orignal two parameters distribution proposed by Pareto is expanded in a three parameters version and both its density and characteristic function are derived. The analytic expression of the inverse...

This paper develops a quantitative model of trade, military conflicts, and defense spending. Trade liberalization between two countries reduces probability of an armed conflict between them, causing both to cut defense spending. This in turn causes a domino effect on defense spending by other...

Erdgas leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zur europäischen Energieversorgung. Umso mehr schürt die politische Krise zwischen Russland und der Ukraine die Angst vor den Folgen eines möglichen russischen Lieferstopps von Erdgas in die Ukraine und die Europäische Union. Zu einem solchen Ereignis...

The formulas of cost and allocative efficiencies of decision making units (DMUs) with positive data cannot be used for DMUs with negative data. On the other hand, these formulas are needed to analyze the productivity and performance of DMUs with negative data. To this end, this study introduces...

Studies of cooperation in infinitely repeated matching games focus on homogeneous economies, where full cooperation is efficient and any defection is collectively sanctioned. Here we study heterogeneous economies where occasional defections are part of efficient play, and show how to support...

In fall 1935, Abraham Wald presented a fixed-point proof of a general equilibrium model to Karl Menger's Mathematical Colloquium in Vienna. Due to limited space, the paper could not be printed in the eighth proceedings of the Colloquium (the Ergebnisse) published in spring 1937 but was scheduled...

In October 1956, the RAND Corporation establis hed the Logistics Systems Laboratory (LSL) with the goal of using simulation to translate the broad findings of normative microeconomics into detailed, implementable pr ocedures for US Air Force oper ations. The laboratory was housed in the training...

The paper investigates Evsey's Domar's introduction of the rate of growth as a variable in economics in the 1940s and 1950s . Domar investigated the nature of what he called the "moving equilibrium" of ec onomic processes with infinite duration. Reactions to Domar' s approach at the time brought...

This essay reviews new histories of the role of game theory and rational decision-making in shaping the social sciences, economics among them, in the post war period. The recent books The World the Game Theorists Made by Paul Erickson and How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind by Paul Erickson, Judy...