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We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476126
This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157628
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380740
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132832
I develop a toolbox to analyze the properties of multivariate Markov-switching models. I first derive analytical formulas for the evolution of first and second moments, taking into account the possibility of regime changes. The formulas are then used to characterize the evolution of expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083330
countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605141
We use data on immigrants who live in the United States to study the effects of exposure to hyperinflation on … occupational choice. To do so, we calculate the number of years an individual had lived under hyperinflation before arriving to the … point. This effect depends on the age individuals had when exposed to hyperinflation. In particular, it is stronger for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783710
Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially … pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and … elevated economic uncertainty directly affected inflation dynamics and the incidence of hyperinflation during the interwar …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011855599
parallel market devaluation-inflation spiral, which threatens to turn into hyperinflation. Nevertheless, we argue that … hyperinflation, according to the proposed post-Keynesian framework (the flight to foreign currency), does not materialise despite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747158