This paper focuses on the cross-dynamics of exchange rate expectations over different time-scales. We use over-the-counter currency options on the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar to extract expected probability density functions of future exchange rates, and...

Two separate branches of research have shown the empirical benefits of nonlinearities in macroeconomic models and bounded rationality, respectively. This paper bridges these literatures by developing a methodology for estimating DSGE models when expectations are formed by adaptive learning...