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I find that the standard class of affine models produces poor forecasts of future changes in Treasury yields. Better forecasts are generated by assuming that yields follow random walks. The failure of these models is driven by one of their key features: the compensation that investors receive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702244
We analyze the relationship between the prices of ethanol, agricultural commodities and livestock in Nebraska, the U.S. second largest ethanol producer. The paper focuses on long-run relations and Granger causality linkages between ethanol and the other commodities.The analysis takes possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010633230
Working Capital that accounts for 20-40% of the total assets (depending on the industry) plays a challenging role in managing companies. It requires a close attention because of the threatening risk of an eventual failure to meet the financial obligations. The paper discusses the characteristics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010634091
According to the rising “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test if these data can enhance predictions for youth unemployment in France. As we have on the one hand weekly series on web search queries and on the other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010634961
An econometric model which has first been estimated on medal wins at Summer Olympics and has predicted 88% of medal distribution at Beijing Games 2008, is revisited for Winter Olympics. After changing some variables to take into account the winter sports specificity, the model is estimated again...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025665
DAX for forecasting horizons from one day to 45 days with a new model-free test procedure that avoids joint assessments of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005839466
The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008456452
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008456462
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458290
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458417